Issue #163 | Sept. 26, 2008 | by Andy Kowl

Michael Dortch of the Aberdeen Group recently wrote here, on RFID Street, that old, outdated perceptions of RFID were stifling its market growth among retailers. It was the first time I had heard someone put words to that; but I had been observing that same thing throughout the marketplace.

The Aberdeen Group had interviewed 150 companies, so I could no longer wonder if it was my imagination. Regular readers will know I delight in bashing analysts. But ya gotta like the analyst who verifies what you think. Anyway, Michael and I first crossed paths 30 years ago; and there's always something to be said for that.

At recent forums in Orlando and Washington, D.C., the wide variety of folks I met allowed me to quantify the trend: there are many smart, successful IT and business executives – probably a clear majority – who have a 2-3 year gap in knowledge of RFID.

If you last looked at RFID 2-3 years ago:

• Standards were just settling down, EPC Global's Gen 2 having been ratified at the beginning of 2005.
• Here on RFID Street, in April, 2005, we did the first "Street tests" of early Gen 2 prototype equipment. No products were yet available for sale.
• Beginning of 2006, Gen 2 product effectively becomes available.
• During 2006, discussion of this new RFID stuff revolves around read rates were disappointing – and "When the heck will they have that nickel tag?"
• During 2006 The Wall Street Journal runs articles denouncing RFID as a failed technology for not living up to analysts' hype.

In other words, two years ago little was happening in this untested, new technology. But as little as there was going on, the stories were worse. Why wouldn't you stop paying attention at about that point?

If two years ago was the last you paid attention to RFID, then you know almost nothing about it.

For those in the RFID industry, it would be helpful to fix this. And for those business executives who are suffering this knowledge gap, you may be doing your company a disservice.

This Gap may be slowing RFID's growth more than the economy.

After all, if you were in the desert wouldn't you want the water concession? If you are in economic tough times, what would you rather sell than the ability for a business to save a lot of money quickly? This is what RFID merchants sell. What could stand in the way of a sale like that, right?

Often it is these RFID "Gappers" standing in the way. Worst of all, they typically don't realize they are as out of date and out of touch as they truly are. And being smart, savvy people, they can be resistant to new information challenging their perceptions. In fact, I have observed a byproduct of this phenomenon is that many Gappers will argue a position "against" RFID, or even worse, nod patronizingly and pay no more attention.

Emerging technologies have a long sales cycle in the best of circumstances. Those who heard only sad RFID stories last time they checked, have much to overcome before they will pay attention.

If you want to help you may ask, "How will I recognize them?"

Simple. When you begin a conversation with someone about RFID, if that person mentions Walmart within the first two sentences – Gapper! This test is virtually foolproof. Of course, if the first response is, "RF what?" then at least they have no old, negative baggage to overcome.

This is no knock on Walmart. It is just that those for whom RFID = Walmart are living in the past. I have no doubt our friend Simon Langford, Walmart's guru of operational RFID, would be the first to endorse that statement.

These are people that are usually pretty tuned into technology. But since they last paid attention to RFID, since 2005 or 2006:

• The cost of RFID tags is down about 70%
• The cost of readers are down more than 50%
• Successful implementations are happening worldwide, for many businesses in a wide variety of industries.
• Gen 2 technology has matured rapidly in two years and 100% read rates are the norm in dozens of applications, not the exception.
• Businesses and institutions across the board are commonly finding ROI in four to nine months.
• And, yes, Walmart not only continues to expand their RFID use; their Sam's Club stores will be using it universally by January.

Earlier this week I met the CIO of a $10 billion chemical manufacturer. Sure enough, he mentioned Walmart right off the bat; but my litmus test was suspect because it turns out Walmart was their biggest customer and they had been using RFID for years now. After all this time they were still 'slapping & shipping' – my words, not his –and he had no interest in looking for any other internal efficiencies, nor believed any were yet possible with RFID. Last time he looked at how RFID was doing? Bingo! More than two years ago.

This RFID knowledge gap will close; but if you recognize it in yourself or others, do yourself a favor and take some time to catch up the with the success RFID is bringing more and more companies.